So, I tried to do an estimate pass cost for the next event by myself with the info I’ve got from the spoilers.
Basic information :
-we have three type of chests: wood, gold and crystal that respectively give you 2,3 and 4 points each time one of them falls in one of the three available slots;
- once they've fallen, you wait 12 hours until the wood chest opens (therefore making room for the next chest to fall in next), 18 hours for the gold and 24 hours for the crystal.
That makes an average of 6 hours wait/ slot to get a point regardless of the type of chests you get. Since there are three slots you get 6 points every 12 hours => 12 points every day.
You need 560 points to fill the meter and get the divine (or 1120 hours).
Every day, you get two free boosters. Each booster spares you 4 hours of waiting.
Furthermore, if all three slots are occupied by a chest, you can use a master key to open them up all at once in exchange for 1 pass. We also get to buy 10 boosters in exchange for one pass during weekend offers.
The event will probably start June, 28 and end July, 16. This makes 433 hours (regardless of the type of chests you get) + 19 days X 2 booster/day = 38 boosters, which means an extra 152 hours.
1 120 h - (433 h + 152 h) = 535 h, translating in 267.5 points still needed to fill the meter. Keep in mind that you need to open the chests as soon as their time is up to get all these points for free.
Considering the case where you only get wooden chests, we can count 2 points per chest, therefore we still need to open 133,75 chests to fill the meter.
Using the master key you can open three chests at once using one pass, which amounts to 45 passes you need to spend (still considering worse case scenario when you only have wooden chests).
Using the 10 booster weekend offer, we can’t count all three slots “ageing” together anymore because you can only use one booster/chest and not for all three chests at once. So 267.5 points needed, 12 hours necessary to get 2 points amounts to 1605 hours total. Each 10 booster pack takes away 40 hours => 40 passes needed to fill the meter. If all you have in the slots are wooden chests (36 hour worth), booster packs are more convenient than master key. But if you have a gold chest (18 h ) and two wooden chests (24 h), master key is more convenient.
So if you want to use the boosters strategically you should use them on wooden chests only and use the master key when you have one or more slots occupied by gold and crystal chests. That should save you some passes.
Hope everything adds up, feel free to tell me if I missed anything.

Unfortunately I did miss something. The free boosters you get every day can't be counted as simultaneous hour reduction (as I explained when I talked about the 10 booster pack). So the free points you can get by always having three chests in the three slots and always opening them as soon as their time is up is only 217. The 38 boosters you get for free during the event translate as other 25 free points, so only 242 total instead of 292. With further maths I won't write here anymore because I'm sure you've had enough for today, using booster packs amounts to 48 passes needed to fill the meter. Using the master key the cost jumps up to 57 passes. Either way, my advice stands. Only use boosters on wooden chests

So is 48-57 passes the pass estimate for that promo? At least, as long as we follow your advice?

Apparently I wanted to go for the divine but I don't have that many passes yet I'll probably raise some more until the event starts but honestly it's too much in my opinion, on my server nyx packs aren't even worth that much and I'm honestly too lazy to take care for a divine daily when it takes it months to give you anything.
Consider you might also win boosters in the chests but they'll only spare you 3-4 passes overall. You could get a good amount of golds and crystals that might spare you some passes too if you use the master key on them. Also, you might get a couple of points at the very start when little Ow explains how the event works? Will need confirm from prepod for that one.
So overall it'll still be around 40-45 passes I think... I'm kinda upset about it but the other prizes are really good too so I might just invest a couple of passes to get the fallabella.

Okay! Thanks for posting the rundown and giving advice!

I'm most interested in the Fabella too, as well as the coat prizes like Magic Hat and Bewitched Pumpkin. Nyx Packs are nice but not enough for me to spend 40+ passes on a divine

Why does 560 points translate to 1120 hours needed? We basically get 1 point per 6 hours (12 hours = 2 points, 18 = 3, 24 = 4) so that would mean 3360 hours needed right? Maybe I'm totally wrong but that's how I worked it out.

19 days gives you 456 hours, 2 free boosters a day gives you 152 hours, together 608 so you're 2752 hours short. That's 688 boosters and 68.8 passes.

Of course it would be a bit cheaper if you use the master key on the bigger chests

So this was my theory please tell me if I'm really dumb and made a mistake

See, I knew I did something really dumb how did I miss that.

But 1120 would mean you have to "buy" 512 hours, 128 boosters?

Don't worry, I did the same mistake initially
And no, if you use boosters hours don't count the same way any longer, because you can only use one booster/chest and not one booster for all three chests in the slots. Therefore you need to count 512 hours X 3.

Is it true that you won't get the divine without spending many passes?
Also, what is the grand prize? Is it a divine? Wich one?

Howrse has always worked like that, most events are impossible to win without spending passes unfortunately

I'm excited for this next promo! The prizes look really nice. I hope to get a Double-Sided Medallion. I love the idea of having a chance to get one of the coat-based BMIs.

Also, I've been seeing things about a Polar Bear Chimera? Is there a picture up of one?

This is referring to the Insular Mine. To keep it short and sweet, I put together a spreadsheet showing the distribution of chests I've received. I've elected to measure the number of chests in relation to crystal chests (which are numbered 1-4) and kept track of how many of each chest type I received before each crystal. After I became lazy (at about 206 points, keep in mind 560 are needed for the divine)

After that I did a rough estimate of how many total hours/days it would have amounted to WITHOUT the use of keys/boosters. Keep in mind that keys cost 1 pass each and open 3 chests (regardless of their type) and boosters are won as a prize more often than not (that can be seen in my prize overview) and the number of boosters needed varies per chest:


As I'm testing the divine, it shows I've already received it, please keep in mind I have not completed the event!

Just a follow up, my chest measurements do not include the tutorial, where players receive one of each chest.

In case you're still wondering, this is the divine!


If you have any more questions feel free to ask and I'll do my best to answer them!

What event is coming after the Wandering Horses Promo? Will it be possible to get the grand prize without spending many passes?

if the upcoming event will have any perks from spending passes on BMIs? I know sometimes they offer help items to you when you spend passes in the black market. I plan on spending some passes soon and wanted to know if it would be helpful to save my purchase till I can benefit from some perks as well. Thanks!

festivities portion of the Great Challenge. The only offers we saw on preprod for the Insular Mine was a pack of (10?) boosters for 1 pass, and the second offer was 14 boosters for a pass. Not sure if we'll get some sort of other offer. I hope we see something else because progress turned really slow