It was a flash sale sort of situation.

Nope. It was in the direct sales. Beware: the divines literally sold out in 2-3 seconds so you need to have your fast clicking reflexes and your fast and stable internet connection with you if the sale hasn't changed. Hopefully the next black friday run will be different..

Hopefully Howrse listened to us when we complained about both the terrible execution of both the pass sale this year and the black friday sale last year.. hopefully they'll implement a few changes.. hopefully..

AdmYrrek and ShadowKokufu thanks for the information
Hope that it would be really different this year

Feedback from Contact Us, R.E. Saturn:

Thank you for posting that. Solidifies my feeling that the luck offers have become far too much like the fable of the frog & the hot water. I think I just noticed it's hot.

That's the exact same reply I received.

Have to say that I am not impressed, that seems like they are just trying to justify the ridiculous price tag they put on the divine because people "take a risk" and keep trying for the divine.

Exactly. They're treating us like kids that don't know how luck items work and expect to get the divine in 2 tries. They know perfectly well we're complaining about the amount of fragments being ridiculously low but they're pretending WE are being the unreasonable ones.

Anyone know how long it's been since the rainbows were rotated through luck items?

According to the directories, the last rainbow bought was Cool Carrot, who was bought on 2020-01-20. The rainbows finished their last rotation in January this year.

So much this, but it's not just the Contact Us/Admins. I have CONSTANTLY had experiences of mods responding to questions — sometimes my complaints about the VIP unicorn perk never reaching 25% but most of the time some poor kid's question about coat colors or something similar — that come down to questions about known probabilities with "It's random!" or "It's just luck!"

No. It's not.

Everything on the game has a programmed probability set to it. As in, some human somewhere chose and programmed in the probability of a certain outcome happening. While the outcome of any given experience (i.e. opening a luck item, breeding a foal, getting a gift from a divine, etc.) might be individually UNPREDICTABLE, that doesn't make it "random."

Claiming something is "random" or "just luck" means it is unknowable. But everything that happens on this game is knowable... because someone chose it and set the probability of its occurrence.

When the voices in authority continually insist on something being "random" or "luck" it does three things; 1) it is a de facto claim of no agency on the part of the game (i.e. "It's just random/luck so there's nothing we can do about your experience!"); 2) it misleads/reinforces ignorance of basic probability in those players who don't understand or haven't learned it yet (i.e. a greater likelihood of impacting younger players); and 3) in insults those of us who do know and understand basic probability because it is a lie.

Read this, and then read it again. So much this. Very well said.

The only thing we can do is stop spending money on passes or trying luck items until they realize people aren't going to pay the outrageous prices. I know I'm upset about how much I threw in the hole to not get Saturn, so if a luck item is pricing a divine at 10,000 passes again I'm not going for it. $100 is too much to have people pay for a pixel that won't pay you back for 2 decades

When we respond to the unicorn queries with "it's bad luck," it's because players are not guaranteed a unicorn out of every 5 (or 4) covers. The chance refers to each cover (in which case, it may cause less confusion if it stated the probability as 20%, rather than the fraction). It's definitely possible to reach into a bowl of 4 yellow marbles and 1 blue and pull out the yellow ones several time in a row, because there is a higher chance of grabbing one of those instead of the blue.

I think arguing about imprecise language, such as getting a unicorn being 'just luck' is one thing. But it's sort of a side issue here.

The issues are that:

1) We don't know the chances of getting a jackpot on luck items, and I'm sure many of us suspect they get changed.

2) The prize for definitely getting a divine via filling the meter is sort of visible, once a few people have tried and reported, and is often quite outrageous.

As I've said before, the fragments were sold to us as a safety net against spending outrageous amounts. But they are set so high as to be of no use whatsoever to most players. And the higher they are set, the less players they can possibly be of use to.

Transparency on the chances of getting a jackpot would help people make decisions. Reducing the price for filling fragment bars would make them of use to more players. Both would help players decide when and if they can go for a particular divine.

Yes. I know. I'm a unicorn breeder. With thousands of uni pregnancies under my belt and recorded. And I know the basics of how probabilities work. In this situation, you are proving earlier points made of Howrse authorities treating players as though we don't know how things work. Sure, there are players who don't know, but contextually there's ample evidence in this thread (not to mention others or on my user page) to suggest that I do.

My point in bringing up the language of moderator/admin/contact us responses is that, by passing anything off as "just bad luck," it is an oversimplification to the point of being inaccurate. And, specifically regarding the "it's random" claim (not one you made here in your example), it is straight up inaccurate. Knowingly asserting inaccuracies is usually called "lying."

When a voice of authority tells a player who doesn't understand probabilities (which can usually be inferred based on how they word their question and details about their game) that something is "just bad luck" or "it's random," they do a disservice to that player because they won't gain a better understanding of the situation and will be lead to believe it is outside of anyone's (theirs or the game's) control. That is not accurate.

In the scenario of a string of uni fails, a player who doesn't understand probabilities who is told their experience is "bad luck" would logically come to the conclusion they simply are unlucky and stop trying. It's not a lie, per se, but that wording would predictably lead players to a different conclusion when they operate without full understanding than if either they had full understanding or different wording was used (i.e. not calling it "bad luck"). If the situation is explained to them, or that verbal scapegoat is not offered, they would know they can keep going and -- based on the law of large numbers -- they will eventually see about 20% (or 25% with VIP) unicorn success rate (assuming those are the accurate probabilities, but we're going to assume that for now for argument 's sake).

In the case of the "it's random" answer to anything, a player who doesn't understand probabilities will be misled into thinking no one has control and it can't be changed when, in fact, the game has literally dictated how often something is likely to happen and it can be changed. If they know that, they can petition for changes or try to hold the game accountable if experiences of the probabilities significantly diverge from what the game says they are.

When a voice of authority tells a player who DOES understand probabilities (which, again, can usually be inferred based on how they word their question and details about their game) that something is "just bad luck" or "it's random," they are communicating inaccuracies, either through oversimplification or intentionally. At best it comes off as a rote response intended for children (i.e. often condescending) and at worst it comes of as a lie.

I get that mods/admins/contact us likely communicate to a lot of people every day. Maybe they talk to too many people to reasonably be expected to try to gauge their audience each time they respond. I don't know; I don't know how many instances of communication mods/admins/contact us have each day. But I do know that a large and/or varied audience is still not an excuse to communicate inaccuracies.

They ABSOLUTELY get changed! I'm pretty sure you have like..,. 5% chances on a Zodiac Divine and a 2% on a more valuable Divine, but I'm also sure we had better, better chances back in the day.



T h i s.

I agree with that point,RowanGreen..Ive put blood,sweat and tears into saving up passes (non pass buyer) and as sure as Im human Im not spending them all to not even get a quarter of the meter,cause who knows how long it will be until Saturn comes out again..

I honestly just wish that instead of a meter there were reserved sale offers. Like if you spend x number of luck items, the divine will be in the sales for x price like has been done during past promos and events. I think it stinks that players are expected to fill a meter of 1000 fragments when you get 9 fragments per 200 pass item. That's not really a fallback net, it's frankly a reminder you still won't get the divine you want if you don't have 10,000 passes to spend.

Fair point. I write for a living so word choice is HUGE in my world and I tend to fixate on that.



All of this.

On 1; YES. I think there's sufficient anecdotal evidence here in this thread alone (not to mention the DELETED Divine Dust thread) that the chances have changed quite a bit. Knowing the likelihood of getting the jackpot on a luck item would definitely be valuable to the cost-benefit analysis.

Increased transparency is definitely needed. We're operating in partial darkness, illuminated only by what we can determine through our own records and comparing with others. When that murky situation gets paired with dubious communication behavior (i.e. making misleading statements, threatening sanctions of censoring for voicing frustration, entire useful threads where players came together to try to figure these things out being deleted, etc.), it is a breeding ground for distrust and animosity.

On a business point of things I'm assuming they have targets to meet financially in which case I'm left wondering if instead of having 1 divine that takes 20000p to get you instead just release another divine in the same weekend that may be desirable to other players?

I'd be happy for there to be for instance a rainbow divine and a Nordic in one titans and we choose which one we want to try for ? If the promo for instance has Freya in a TC why not have Borvo in a TC over the weekend aswell?

This would mean many players wouldnt be able to get the same divines in one weekend but if you split the divine categories so it wasnt 2 Nordics at once I think people would argue less


Also wondering for the heavy trophy collectors perspective (top100) what they feel about the price of divines and if you think its fair

Regarding the next divine,

Recorded earning from next event, including divine

I just checked & I'm close enough to the top 100 that if I used some resources I'm holding back I would probably fall within top 100. My opinion is that divines are starting to cost as much as a real live horse in my area, or lifesaving medication for myself or my animals. With no sign of stabilizing. I'm not kidding Jupiter alone cost almost as much as a medication that I only get filled a couple times a year rather than every *month* because I cant afford it. Someone else said they were ashamed of how much they spent on trying to get these divines & frankly I'm there too. I feel absolutely sick at the thought. I'm about ready to put myself in howrse detox, no joke. I don't enjoy gambling, if I did I would have joined a gambling game. The luck items started out as something I super supported. They gave respectable fragments & pretty okay chances. That's changed over time to the absolute ridiculousness of a pixel horse that cannot pay for itself for a quarter CENTURY. That's longer than some of the players around here have even been alive.

Personally I wouldn't support the "make the players choose" scenario you describe just because it doesn't address the problem and puts more stress right back on the players trying to decide what to go for (for the amount of rent, meds, etc etc whatever applies to them). No knock against your idea, it just wouldn't make it better for me personally. Maybe it would for others.

Honestly maybe Saturn being my wakeup call is for the best. I feel absolutely kicked in the heart about it but I was buying passes every month with what money I could scrounge & basically every penny I've had has gone to howrse for a long time. I would have continued in that manner unquestioningly to get this & that divine that I just "really had to have". And the total kept adding up. It took seeing what went down with Saturn to make me realize I might need to step away and detox, if not exactly join a gamblers association (sadly I do not enjoy luck items, they're awful on my anxiety so I can probably skip that step). But the prices got too much for one divine instead of more spread out and there came a reckoning.

So. I mean. No. I think it's out of control to price one single divine at the prices we've seen lately. Trophies or not it's just not something that feels...completely sane. This from someone who started buying passes again because I support howrse & want them to continue to be in business long enough for Saturn to pay themself off! I love howrse. It's my therapy & my community. But that reply about luck items "being a risk" just makes me feel I should go back to my pre-fragments policy of no luck items, ever. We know they're a risk. What they shouldn't be is what they've become, a risk too far.

I don't say any of this in anger, really. Shock, disappointment, a wierd form of grief. Granted I have a lot going on in my head right now that has nothing to do with howrse, but the timing just put the cherry on top. I'm struggling to want to sign in & spend my time here. Again, part of that is depression, but part of that is not.

Hope this helps. I don't like talking too much, always afraid I'll be smacked down for speaking, but by the nature of your question there's only so many who could reply to your question.

Not to mention with this new thing of the promo divines being in luck items instead of the "final prize", it's making it harder for lower players to get to as well. Many of my divines on my other server I got because I was very strategic with the promos and only had to spend a handful of passes on the last day to reach the divine. Now, even if all fragments available are picked up (*more on this below) youre still often going to have to spend significantly more on luck items.

*With fragments making up half the prizes in promos, it means there are less object prizes and thus makes promos less appealing to players who don't want the divines. I have no real interest in Percival, and on my other server I really barely have the motivation to play this event because there are only 2 or 3 useful prizes. I really don't like the direction events are going in.